The Counter Bet: a Smart Punter's Bet

The Counter Bet: a Smart Punter's Bet

There are verification sites on the network where forecasters confirm the statistics of the bets made. Analysis of these statistics shows that it is possible to make a stable profit on bets. We will look at the various strategies of betting, the influence of mathematics, as well as other features of this type of income.

Understand Mathematics

Knowledge in sports and analytical skills make you a good bettor, and understanding of mathematics makes you a professional and successful bettor. The mathematics in sports betting is essential, and today explains on one hand why.

It's worth starting the topic of mathematics in betting with the elementary - odds, odds, probability, margin. Four concepts that are inextricably linked. The bookmaker offers different types of bets (outcomes) for each event, each of which has a numerical expression in the form of a coefficient. What is the ratio?

The coefficient is a reflection of the probability of a particular event (outcome) in the opinion of analysts of bookmakers. The team of specialists studies the match, after which it makes a prediction, based on which the probability of each bet is calculated, which is ultimately converted into odds. The player sees only the final product - the odds behind which the probability is hidden.

Betting, in its essence, is pure mathematics and it is possible to calculate the probability of passing this or that event, as well as the probability of achieving an advantage, the formation of a value bet. The calculation formula looks like this: MO = V * P (V) - L * P (L).

The decoding of the formula is as follows:

  1. V is the predicted payoff.
  2. MO is the mathematical expectation.
  3. L - approximate loss.
  4. P (V) is the mathematical expectation of a win.
  5. P (L) - calculation of the probability of losing.

An important point - P (L) and P (V) should add up to one.

Learn the Basics and Some Strategies

The question that worries every beginner: is it possible to make money on sports betting? Yes, you can. For example, bets on sure bets bring profit. Although now this occupation is more difficult than 10 years ago. Those who assess the likelihood of events better than the bookmaker and place value bets also make money on the distance. By the way, if you want to get accurate soccer predictions, we recommend that you follow the link provided and subscribe to the blog section updates.

There are other top sports betting tips that contradict at least the rules of bookmaker companies, at most - the law. Such classes have one thing in common: they are full-time work that takes a lot of time. If you bet from time to time, do not have deep knowledge in narrow leagues or insiders from athletes, are not savvy in mathematics, it is better to immediately accept that in sports betting you will pay for adrenaline.

As already mentioned, the bookmaker always receives a guaranteed profit based on the difference between the actual odds and those offered in the line. But this does not mean at all that any bettor cannot win on bets. To achieve real success, we recommend using the sports betting tips:

  1. Search for events with inflated odds. Beginner bettors see only the estimated winnings behind the odds, while professionals look for mistakes made by expert bookmaker analysts. A successful search for "value odds" requires a deep study of statistical data.

  2. Use arb arbitrage - that is, select such bets in which a win in one will override a loss in another. The difficulty lies both in finding a favorable combination of results and in a quick response. Typically, the plug "lives" on average about 15 minutes. Special software has even been developed to find sure bets.
  3. Use exchanges for betting. Exchanges act as intermediaries between betters and bookmakers, providing more favorable conditions for the former. The disadvantage of exchanges is that their activities are officially prohibited in most jurisdictions.

Hunting for bonuses is the best sports betting tips for amateurs. Not all bookmaker bonus offers are disadvantageous for betters. There are so-called "free bets" - free bets on which you can make money. Having made a bet, the player covers it with a bet on the stock exchange in order to stay in positive territory for any result. If the free bet is played, the player bets new ones until the conditions for wagering the bonus are met.

Recently, bonus hunting has completely lost its effectiveness. It is much more expedient to make a regular deposit and play for your own money.

The Counter Bet: a Smart Punter's Bet

The Counter Bet is a smart single bet on a certain sporting event. Counter Bets on two or three events are used by professionals more rarely. The event and its outcome, on which the bet is made, are defined in a non-random manner. The Counter Bet is always associated with a previously made multiple bet. Such a bet type was named a smart punter's bet.

Let's consider an example of the smart punter's Counter Bet. First of all, there should be a multiple bet, i.e. a bet on several sporting events. The multiple bet should be heterogeneous in time, which means that the last events should take place later than the first ones.

The multiple bet:

  • Football 7:00 pm Arsenal-Chelsea 1 1.9
  • Football 9:00pm Manchester-Liverpool 1 1.8
  • Football 11:00 pm Barcelona-Real 1 1.5
  • The total odds: 5.13
  • The bet amount: EUR 100

Let's suppose that Arsenal won over Chelsea and then Manchester won a victory over Liverpool. So there is the only bet left in the multiple. A smart person can take advantage of this situation. During a short period of time between the matches, from 10:45 pm to 11:00 pm, one can make a Counter Bet. The point is that the gambler should make a bet on those outcomes, which contradict the last outcome specified in the multiple bet. In our case, one should choose X2 outcomes (tie or the second team victory). Let's suppose that the odds for X2 are 1.9. To cover the amount of the first bet one needs to bet EUR 111 = EUR 100 / (1.9-1).

The Counter Bet:

  • Football 23:00 Barcelona-Real X2 1.5

The punter has two options. If Barcelona wins, he will receive EUR 402. If Real wins or a tie takes place, he will get EUR 211. The total amount of both bets is EUR 211. Therefore, a smart person will make a situation break-even anyway in spite of losing a part of the winnings generated by the first bet.

Advantages of this smart bet

Risk insurance and guaranteed winning.

Disadvantages of this smart bet

Reduction of the potential winnings generated by the first bet. However, as practice shows, the last selection is exactly the one that is frequently guessed incorrectly. Most likely, this is a pure psychological aspect. The reasons are difficult to explain.

Conditions required for the Punter's Counter Bet

The first multiple bet should be arranged so that its events are scheduled at different times. This mostly refers to the matches that raise doubts as well as the matches with too small odds for a favorite. In this case, the Counter Bet amount is small, which is very profitable.

Development of the Counter Bet Idea

Since online betting became available, the Counter Bets have taken on special significance. Smart people immediately realized that the events during the same match can change so much that the odds vary considerably as well. This is especially true for tennis. Therefore, one can make bets on a tennis player, but as soon as his expected advantage becomes apparent and the odds for a win of the second player goes sky high, it's time for the gambler to make the Counter Bet on the second tennis player. Such smart punter's bet results in the punter's win in any case regardless of the match outcome.

Be professional, make smart bets and you won't need good fortune at all!

Pay Attention to Money Management

You need to immediately decide how much you are willing to risk at the bookmaker. Don't exceed your limit no matter what. Those who make money on bets have large funds in circulation on numerous accounts. If you want to enjoy the game, get by with the amount you're willing to spend on a beer at a Friday bar. By the way, if you want to get betwinner promo code, follow the provided link. Victory will be yours!

Forget about betting on bank deposits or money from the sale of a car or apartment. Those who do this are full of gambling clinics all over the world.

Almost all novice bettors strive to make bookmaker bets with the sole purpose of getting maximum profit, but without a proper understanding of the trading systems in the bookmaker market, such aspirations often end in failure. It is quite simple to avoid such a deplorable fate, you just need to learn how to do it correctly, manage your capital and clearly understand your financial capabilities. When placing bets in any bookmaker, one should not act at random, but from the first days apply specific types of financial strategies that help to properly manage the invested capital.

Check the Odds

If you are going to make a profit from betting on an ongoing basis, making it your life's work and the main source of income, or even if you consider yourself a not very significant and temporary gambler who bets for fun, you can somehow make money.

Sports betting is full of different aspects. Whether you are trying to bet large amounts on theoretically safe bets, or if you consider yourself the one who can find the highest odds in betting, you need to evaluate your progress in sports betting.

One of the reasons why many people hesitate to try their hand at sports betting is the fear of losing control over their finances. To avoid risks, you need to learn the main rule: for betting, you need to allocate a separate budget and never exceed the established limits, even if it seems that there is an opportunity to win back quickly. Reasonable bankroll management is the main condition for successful betting.

If you have never bet on sports before, let's find out what it takes to get started:

  1. Having one or more favorite sports teams or sports in which you have a keen interest.
  2. Money you are willing to part with.
  3. Internet access.
  4. Ability to control your emotional state.
  5. Desire to devote time to studying analytical materials, to develop.

Professional betting is also a job that requires at least a few hours of time that you are willing to allocate every day. In general, to be successful in any activity, you need to devote time to it. Initially, there will be mistakes and frustration. But they are not allowed only by those who do nothing at all. Over time, you will become even more interested in sports events. It is better to immediately choose the discipline that you like the most.

Bet on What You Know

If you don't have a lot of betting experience, then it's better to bet not on a random sport, but on the one with which you are most familiar. You know the teams and individual athletes. All this will help you not only get better acquainted with the principles of the bookmaker's work, but also really make money on your first bets.


Art Aronson is a tenured bottom-line professional sports handicapper. He is the best ROI handicapper in the business. He is not your typical handicapper.

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